A momentum model calls Kalshi's “Bitcoin price up in the next 15 minutes?” markets. Each call lands on this page the moment it's sent — with the ask we saw — and Kalshi's official result is stamped on afterwards. Wins and losses both stay.
| Time (PT) | Market | Call | Ask | Confidence | Spot − strike | Settled | P&L |
|---|
Every 2 minutes the model prices the nearest open KXBTC15M market from Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and Gemini plus Kalshi's order book. It calls a direction only when momentum, a lognormal fair value and the executable ask agree, and the ask sits between 70¢ and 85¢. One call per market.
Contracts = ⌊$20 ÷ ask⌋. A win pays $1 per contract minus cost and fee; a loss forfeits cost and fee. Fee is Kalshi's taker formula — 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price) — rounded up to the cent.
Each row is appended the moment the alert is sent, minutes before the market settles, and the outcome is filled in from Kalshi's official result afterwards. Rows are never deleted or edited. Simulated stake, real prices.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.